Five days ago, the Pew poll showed Barack Obama with a 15 point lead among likely voters. Pew’s final pre-election poll, released today, shows that McCain has cut that lead by more than half:
The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
Pew isn’t the only poll showing McCain gaining on Obama. The TIPP poll, also shows McCain halving Obama’s lead. Ed Morrisey thinks this poll shows that Obama hasn’t made the sale to independents:
Independents have begun to break for McCain. McCain now leads 45-43. A week ago, Obama led 43-38 with 19% undecided. The entire 7% that has come out of the undecided column in that period have gone to McCain.
But the presidential race isn’t a national election. It is a series of state elections. And Mason-Dixon, another highly regarded and accurate pollster, shows key battleground states moving toward McCain:
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5
And, even in the battleground states where Obama is still ahead, it’s close:
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
But the thing that should keep the Obamatons up tonight is the big percentage of undecided voters. These percentages are about double what they were in 2000 and 2004. My bet is they’re going to break for McCain.
That would give us the biggest upset victory in 60 years.
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