Last week, we were told that Max Baucus had magical powers. The CBO said that his health “reform” bill, in essence a new entitlement, would actually reduce the federal deficit.
Now that a hearty laugh has been had by all, PricewaterhouseCoopers brings us back to planet Earth with an audit (commisioned by AHIP) whose findings aren’t pretty:
The day before a U.S. Senate panel votes on healthcare reform, an insurance industry report said a family premium in 2019 could cost $4,000 more than thought.
The Baucus bill, according to PWC (warning: 26-page pdf), contains 4 provisions that will probably increase premiums more than they would rise in its absence:
Insurance market reforms coupled with a weak coverage requirement.
A new tax on high-cost health care plans.
Cost-shifting as a result of cuts to Medicare.
New taxes on several health care sectors.
The PWC report goes on to compare the impact of these provisions to what would happen if the current system (even with its well-known flaws) were simply left unmolested:
On average, the cost of private health insurance coverage will increase:
26 percent between 2009 and 2013 under the current system [compared to] 40 percent if these four provisions are implemented.
50 percent between 2009 and 2016 under the current system [compared to] 73 percent if these four provisions are implemented.
79 percent between 2009 and 2019 under the current system [compared to] 111 percent if these four provisions are implemented.
Because the voters consistently say that their top health care concerns involve cost and access, this report has many advocates of government-run health care worried.
Thus, it is being portrayed in the “news” media and blogosphere as insurance industry skulduggery. A recurring theme is that PWC ignored subsidies allegedly provided for in the bill.
This is, of course, deliberately deceptive. These people know that these subsidies are vaporware. As Ed Morrissey (paraphrasing Senator John Barrasso) points out:
The subsidies don’t start until 2013, but the taxes and fees kick in immediately. That will start the price pressure on premiums next year, not in 2013, and it will actually make the problem of uninsured worse in the short run.
And, when the Baucus bill’s runaway costs become a serious issue, these subsidies will be tossed overboard. This isn’t about cheaper or better health care, folks. This is about power.
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