It was not an exit poll, so we have no idea if the respondents were actual voters.

Respondents to telephone polls notoriously lie their butts off about their voting histories.

Yep. A 5-point win by a Republican for “Ted Kennedy’s seat� cannot reasonably described in any other way. He was 30 points down a couple of months ago.

Consider the poll by Hart research

The Hart poll was not an exit poll. It was conducted the day after the election, and we don’t know how Hart verified that his respondents had actually voted in the election. So his findings are pretty worthless.

Then there is the poll by the Washington Post; Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard

This is another post-election poll which doesn’t reveal its method of verifying that respondents actually voted. Still, it shows that 93% of Brown’s voters rated health care as “extremely� or “very� important.

As I note above, there was only one exit poll done of actual (verified) voters. That was the Fabrizio survey, and it showed very different results than your post hoc polls. More than three-quarters of Brown’s voters explicitly stated that their primary motivation for coming out was to kill the bill.

As always, thank you for publicizing my views.

And thanks for the correction. I had pickd up a bad number: Brown didn’t take 51% of the vote, as you say he took 52%.

That’s a massacre?

As to why people voted for Brown: consider the poll by Hart reserach which showd that “82% of voters were aware of Scott Brown’s opposition to health care legislation supported by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but “it had virtually no net impact on the Senate election.â€?

Here is the money line:
“Those who knew Brown’s position [on reform] were as likely to say it made them less likely (39%) to support him as to say it made them more likely to support him (41%).�

This is what the voters themselves said.

By 61% to 33%, Massachusetts voters said they were picking the best

candidate to be their U.S. senator, rather than “sending a message to

Washington.� Drill down, and look only at Brown’s voters, and you’ll find that they, too, say they were selecting the best candidate, not sending a message to Washington about the direction of the country (52% to 42%).

People simply liked Scott Brown better. His personal rating from voters was 51% positive to 32% negative (net +19 points), while Coakley had much weaker personal ratings at 40% positive and 37% negative.

Insofar as they were voting on issues, those polled reported that they were most concerned about the economy and jobs. Electing a candidate
“who will strengthen the economy and create more good jobs� was the single most /very important factor according to 79% of those polled.

Health care reform placed a distant second: “Electing a candidate who is committed to controlling health care costs and covering the uninsured� (single most/very important factor)among only 54% of all voters.

Then there is the poll by the Washington Post; Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard which reveals that:

“48 percent of Brown’s voters think that Brown should work with Democrats on the health-care reform bill rather than partner with Republicans to sink the effort altogether.”

Finally the Kaiser Family Foundation’s January tracking poll reveals that “that even after a year of substantial media coverage of the health reform debate, many Americans remain unfamiliar with key elements of the major bills passed by the House and Senate.â€?

For examle:
–Nearly 40 percent did not know that the bill would prohibit insurers from denying coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

–Roughly one-quarter had no idea that low-income and middle-income Americans would get subsidies to help them buy healthcare.

–The vast majority of seniors had no idea that hte bill would help close the donut hole which forces them to pay out-of-pocket for drugs.

The study concludes: In general, the more that respondents learned about the bill, the more positive they were. “It’s one thing to talk about the public’s perception of health care reform legislation, which right now is in some ways negative, but it’s another to tell people what’s actually in the bill and when you do that people are more positive� said Kaiser President and CEO Drew Altman.

It’s pretty hard to argue that voters were showing their opposition to the Senate bill if they don’t know what’s in the bill.

The exit polls show that they voted for Brown because: a) they liked him much better b) they’re concerned about jobs and
c) Much of Obama’s natural constiuency stayed home. (They didn’t particuarly like either candidate.)

You’ll find all of this here.
Thank you.

Maggie Mahar

Subsequent polling shows that younger voers, single women, Blacks and Latinos stayed hom. They were’t particularly excited about either candidate.