Nate Silver, a poll analyst much beloved of the Left, has some bad news for the Democrats. His latest statistical model suggests that, when the smoke clears after November’s midterms, the Democrat Senate majority will be down to 52 seats. Here’s his chart showing the statistical probability of various electoral outcomes:
In terms of individual Senate seats, Silver’s model suggests that seven Democrat seats will go Republican. Here are the statistical probabilities produced by his algorithm for those seats. The percentage to the right of each state is the statistical probability that one of its seats will flip to Republican hands:
North Dakota———-99%
Arkansas—————–73%
Nevada——————–73%
Pennylvania ———–72%
Colorado——————70%
Deleware—————–66%
Illinois——————–51%
This is, of course, highly speculative stuff. But Silver has a pretty decent track record for accuracy, and he most assuredly is not biased in favor of the GOP. Considering the stubborn refusal of the Democrats to face the grim political realities highlighted by the Massachusetts Senate election, things could turn out even worse than he predicts.
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