IBD’s David Hogberg provides four reasons the Democrats will not use reconciliation, a once-obscure parliamentary maneuver that only requires 51 votes, to pass Obamacare. First, if “going nuclear” were a real possibility, we would have seen the mushroom clouds by now:
This is the same tactic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer hinted at over three weeks ago, on the eve of Scott Brown’s election. It is the same tactic that Democrats supposedly decided on about two weeks ago. Pelosi could have brought the bill up for a vote any time last week, but didn’t. She didn’t because she doesn’t have the votes. Her threats now are little more than saying, ‘Yes, but I’m serious this time! Really.’
Second there’s Bart Stupak and his fellow anti-abortion Democrats:
The Michigan Democrat was still threatening to withhold his support of any bill that didn’t prevent public money from funding abortion, and supposedly he had 10 to 11 Democrats who would go along with him … Stupak’s press secretary tells IBD abortion is not the only problem the congressman has with the Senate bill.
Third, Madam Speaker is facing increasingly difficult arithmetic:
The number of votes Pelosi has keeps shrinking. She already lost two votes she had for the House bill with Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL) and retiring and Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) … The death this week of Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) drops it to 217. And in about two weeks it will fall to 216, with the retirement of Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) …
Finally, public opinion is very much against the Dems on this:
54% say wait until after November … That’s the result of a new Rasmussen poll showing that respondents want to select new representatives and senators before Congress goes back to work on health care reform. 61% say that Congress should scrap the current reform and start over.
This last item is the clincher. After the “Massachusetts Miracle,” many rank-and-file Democrats are VERY reluctant to defy the voters. Before that defeat, they may have been delusional enough to think they could get away with reconcilaition. Now, they know the voters are watching.
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