Most knowledgeable sources have declared reconciliation a dead letter. Refusing to be comforted, however, some conservatives have latched on to a new conspiracy theory concerning how the Democrats will contrive to pass Obamacare.
I first encountered this latest black helicopter plot yesterday at William Jacobson’s blog, where he predicted that the House would pass the Senate bill, on the promise that it will be “fixed” via reconciliation, but that Obama will sign it into law whether it’s fixed or not.
I don’t doubt for a minute that Obama would do such a thing, but I have serious doubts that he’ll get the opportunity. Today, Jacobson’s theory bubbled up at Hot Air, where Ed Morrissey has been apparently been getting a lot of e-mail about it.
Readers have sent a number of e-mails objecting to our focus on reconciliation … Reconciliation is just a ruse, they warn. The real danger is that the House will pass the Senate version of ObamaCare and that Barack Obama will sign it into law.
Morrissey provides the following reality check:
If that’s all it took, though, it would already have been done. The problem is that the Senate bill is unpopular among Democrats in the House.
It’s unpopular because it contains no public option, yet retains the much-hated Cadillac tax and a deal-killing provision for federal abortion funding. But there’s still another, and more important, reason the House won’t pass the Senate bill:
House Democrats aren’t dumb enough to trust their Senate brethren.
I pointed out that delicious irony last week. The House Democrats know their Senate colleagues better than most people (inside or outside the Beltway) and thus know what kind of skulduggery they’re capable of. James Clyburn came right out and said it a few weeks ago:
House Democrats don’t trust Senate Democrats, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said late this week … Clyburn said the Senate would have to move first to pass fixes …
So, what we have here is a classic catch-22. The Senate can’t fix its Obamacare bill with reconciliation until the House passes it, and the House won’t pass the Senate legislation until “the world’s greatest deliberative body” fixes it.
In other words, it doesn’t matter whether Harry Reid is willing to double-cross the House or that Obama is willing to sign an “unfixed” Senate bill. Neither opportunity will materialize.
Relax. Obamacare is dead.
Comments 2
I was one of Ed Morrisey’s e-mail correspondents on this issue that one step of the process is to make the Senate bill law. I don’t believe in conspiracies (generally speaking). My point was exactly what you conclude: this means that wavering House Dems can’t vote to pass the Senate bill, because they can’t trust the reconciliation process to play out in the Senate. Therefore, Obamacare is dead.
The question is: Has Obama figured this out yet? I don’t think so. But I think it’s starting to become clear to Pelosi, which is why she can’t commit to Obama’s timetable. Personally, I don’t think there will be any more votes on Obamacare.
Posted 04 Mar 2010 at 6:59 pm ¶I don’t think there will be any more votes on Obamacare.
I think (and pray) you’re right.
Posted 04 Mar 2010 at 7:35 pm ¶Trackbacks & Pingbacks 1
[…] Health Care BS Considers it a conspiracy theory. I first encountered this latest black helicopter plot yesterday at William Jacobson’s blog, where he predicted that the House would pass the Senate bill, on the promise that it will be “fixed” via reconciliation, but that Obama will sign it into law whether it’s fixed or not. […]
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