Nate Silver, a left-leaning poll analyst often quoted by the MSM and the nutroots, has been digging through the generic ballot numbers and he’s not finding a pony for the President’s accomplices in the House:
One reasonably well-informed translation of the generic ballot polls is that the Democrats would lose 51 House seats if the election were held today.
That’s more than enough for the GOP to take control of the House (they need 40 pick-ups), but Silver adds that the damage could well be worse:
If Democrats were to lose 50, 60, 70 or even more House seats, it would not totally shock me.
Silver put together the following chart with a regression analysis of past congressional elections. According to his model, the Democrats lose 30 seats if they garner 50% of the popular vote.
But the Dems won’t do that well if the actual vote tracks the generic ballot. They will probably lose the popular vote by 2 to 6 percent. As the chart suggests, that means the GOP wins back control of the House:
All of this is highly speculative, of course, but that it’s coming from Silver is significant. That he leans left enhances the credibility of his analysis. He has no ideological incentive to exaggerate the Democrat dilemma.
Post a Comment